True Deterrence Without New ICBMs? America’s Global Reach Explained

While the US proceeds with replacing its aging Minuteman III missiles through the Sentinel initiative, a technical analysis suggests that America's existing global military architecture may already provide comprehensive deterrence capabilities, potentially rendering new land-based ICBMs strategically redundant. This becomes particularly relevant following the recent developments from China and Russia, which demonstrate sophisticated approaches to long-range deterrence that may offer lessons for American strategic planning.

Technical Assessment: The Trident II D5 System

From a systems engineering view, the UGM-133A Trident II D5 submarine-launched ballistic missile is likely the most advanced and survivable nuclear delivery platform in use today. The missile's three-stage solid-fuel design allows it to travel over 12,000 kilometers with a circular error probable (CEP) of less than 90 meters. These precision measures compete with or surpass land-based options.

The D5's specifications are remarkable: it weighs 58,500 kilograms and can carry up to eight W76 or W88 thermonuclear warheads, each with its own targeting option. More importantly, the submarine launch platform offers advantages in survivability that fixed sites cannot. Ohio-class submarines can operate at depths of over 240 meters, using advanced noise reduction and nuclear propulsion that allows almost unlimited underwater endurance.

In terms of targeting, submarines in international waters can significantly reduce missile flight times compared to intercontinental launches. A D5 launched from the Norwegian Sea can reach Moscow in about 15 minutes, while a Minuteman III from Montana takes 30 minutes. This creates a considerable tactical advantage that fixed silos cannot match, no matter how modernized.

Engineering Analysis: Global Deployment Architecture

America's forward military deployment is a complex system that offers strategic advantages beyond traditional intercontinental missiles. With about 750 installations in 80 countries, this network creates various launch points and staging areas. This effectively lowers the importance of systems based in the mainland US.

Instead of concentrating assets in fixed locations like missile silos, forward deployment spreads capabilities over continents and oceans, the importance of which could be seen during the recent Iran-Israel War when the US launched about 20 Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Recent developments in the Chinese military show a deep understanding of this distributed threat model. In September 2025, China showcased the JL-1 air-launched ballistic missile, the DF-61 land-based ICBM, and the DF-31BJ intercontinental missile during its military parade. It also revealed advanced anti-ship missiles, including the YJ-15, YJ-17, YJ-19, and YJ-20. These systems indicate that Beijing recognizes the need for multi-domain capabilities to challenge American forces deployed abroad especially in the South China Sea.

The technical skill shown in China's recent parade deserves recognition. The DF-61's reported range of 15,000 kilometers and its multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) feature highlight advanced propulsion and guidance technologies. Likewise, the various anti-ship missile options exhibit sophisticated terminal guidance and maneuvering abilities aimed at overcoming layered defensive systems.

Russian Technical Developments

Russia's journey with the RS, 28 Sarmat program has been full of setbacks and failures, but it still offers the world a lot of useful information on the difficulties of designing ICBMs. One of the numerous failure events is when the rocket disintegrated, and consequently, a huge crater emerged at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome on September 21, 2024. Engineering, wise, these errors give the public a sneak peek into how challenging it is to come up with modern ICBM systems.

The main features of Sarmat are its 35.3, meter length, 208, ton weight, and 18, 000 km range. Although the problems caused by the first few tests have limited its success, these figures indicate the achievement of some remarkable engineering. In its liquid, fuel version, the rocket has a higher energy efficiency than the ones with solid fuel. As a result, it has an extraordinary supply of oxygen and a heavy one, toned throwing capability up to 10 tons. However, one of the issues with such systems is that not only do the ground support equipment have to be more carefully covered, but the time needed to launch is also longer, therefore, the system's operational weaknesses are most likely to occur.

Just like any other technological invention, the Sarmat program is also full of technical issues that eventually bring about a broader point highlighted by the engineers that modern ICBMs are very complicated systems and can fail in a multitude of ways. Engineering challenges such as launching infrastructure, command and control networks, missile maintenance, and warhead security pose particular difficulties for ground, based systems. Simplified designs and more flexible operations can solve these problems related to mobility or being sea, based.

The fact that Russia continues to finance the Sarmat project, even though the latter has its drawbacks, tells that Moscow relies heavily on homeland, based deterrence to keep its ground. However, the dual resources used in the program may create better strategic outcomes if shifted to submarine forces or mobile systems that give more survivability from a technical point of view.

Northrop Grumman Sentinel Development

Despite questions about the strategic necessity of the Sentinel program, it is still moving on through important stages of its development, showing the technical intricacy and the extent of changing America's ICBM system. In July 2025, Northrop Grumman carried out the first qualification static test of the two-stage solid rocket motor. The test on the stage-one motor was successful, and so were all three propulsive elements of the missile system. Apart from this, the company has also performed tests on inter-stage separation and shroud fly-off at Naval Air Weapons Station China Lake, which has helped them to confirm the predictions made by the digital models and also the missile’s capability to separate the empty motor stages effortlessly during flight.

The program’s engineering strategy indicates a shift towards digital design principles, whereby advanced simulation and virtual environments are used to lessen the development risk. Essentially, this not only includes the missile but also 450 new unmanned launch facilities, 24 launch centers, and more than 5,000 miles of fiber optic connections covering five states. The extent of this infrastructure, and involving hundreds of specially designed vehicles, is a visual aid explaining the reasons for program costs going beyond $100 billion and why opponents say that more adaptable, distributed alternatives could result in better deterrent effects per dollar spent.